★ MONEY · RETIREMENT WITHDRAWAL CALCULATOR · HOW LONG WILL IT LAST?
First-year $40,000.00 ($3,333.33/mo), year-30 withdrawal $94,262.62, ending balance $1,321,852.90 — runs out in year 49. Put in your retirement balance, the rate you want to withdraw in the first year, the return you expect and the inflation you expect, and the calculator works out the first-year withdrawal, the monthly income, how the withdrawals grow, the balance left after 30 years and the year the money runs out.
The 4% rule: how long does a retirement portfolio last when you withdraw a fixed percentage in the first year, raise it with inflation every year after, and the rest keeps growing? This calculator works out the first-year withdrawal, the monthly income, the inflation-adjusted withdrawals, the balance left at the end of the plan and the year the money runs out.
On the defaults — a $1,000,000.00 balance, a 4.00% first-year withdrawal rate, a 6.00% return and 3.00% inflation over 30 years — the first-year withdrawal is $40,000.00, or $3,333.33/mo a month. By year 30 that withdrawal has grown to $94,262.62, because each year’s withdrawal is bigger than the last by the inflation rate. After 30 years the balance left is $1,321,852.90, and the total withdrawn over those 30 years is $1,903,016.63. The money runs out in year 49 (shortfall $117,542.10 that year) — it lasts 48 full years, so at a 65th-birthday retirement it would carry you past 110. Along the way the year-5 withdrawal is $45,020.35, the year-10 withdrawal is $52,190.93 and the year-20 withdrawal is $70,140.24.
Five things about the model are worth stating plainly. First, withdrawals happen at year-end, after the year’s growth — the balance earns its return first, then the withdrawal comes out. Second, each year’s withdrawal is bigger than the last by the inflation rate, so the spending keeps its buying power while the balance has to work harder every year. Third, the 4% rule is a rule of thumb, not a guarantee — real returns vary year to year, and this model uses one flat return for the whole plan. Fourth, taxes are NOT included — withdrawals from a traditional IRA or 401(k) are taxable income, so the spendable amount is less than the withdrawal shown here. And fifth, the model assumes you stay invested the whole time — moving to cash stops the growth the plan depends on. A balance that is still growing after 30 years means the money outlives the plan, not that you should spend more.
And the number that catches people out: the total withdrawn can be far bigger than the starting balance. On the defaults you start with $1,000,000.00, withdraw $1,903,016.63 over 30 years, and still have $1,321,852.90 left — because the balance keeps growing while you withdraw. That is the whole point of the 4% rule: a modest withdrawal rate lets the growth do most of the work. Push the rate to 5% and the picture changes fast — the balance after 30 years falls to $216,443.34 and the money runs out in year 32.
Setup: balance $1,000,000.00, first-year withdrawal rate 4.00%, expected annual return 6.00%, annual inflation 3.00%, 30 years in retirement.
Line 1 — the first-year withdrawal. The balance times the withdrawal rate: $1,000,000.00 × 4.00% = $40,000.00, or $3,333.33/mo a month.
Line 2 — the year-30 withdrawal. Each year’s withdrawal grows by inflation: $40,000.00 × (1.03)^29 = $94,262.62. The year-5 withdrawal is $45,020.35, the year-10 withdrawal is $52,190.93 and the year-20 withdrawal is $70,140.24.
Line 3 — the ending balance. Year by year, the balance grows by 6.00% and then the year’s withdrawal comes out: after 30 years the balance left is $1,321,852.90.
Line 4 — the total withdrawn. Add up every year’s withdrawal actually paid over the 30 years: $1,903,016.63 — nearly twice the starting balance, because the growth paid for most of it.
Line 5 — when the money runs out. Keep the same yearly steps going past year 30: the balance keeps growing for a while, then the withdrawals — still growing by 3.00% a year — catch up with it. The money runs out in year 49, short $117,542.10 that year; it lasts 48 full years. Rounding convention: totals are computed from unrounded values, so rounded parts may differ by a cent from their rounded sum.
Balance $500,000: first-year $20,000.00 ($1,666.67/mo), ending balance $660,926.45, total withdrawn $951,508.31, runs out in year 49. Halving the balance halves the withdrawal and halves the ending balance — the year it runs out does not move, because the withdrawal rate is the same.
Balance $2,000,000: first-year $80,000.00 ($6,666.67/mo), ending balance $2,643,705.81, total withdrawn $3,806,033.26, runs out in year 49. Everything scales with the balance; the depletion year is set by the rates, not by the dollars.
Withdrawal rate 3%: first-year $30,000.00 ($2,500.00/mo), ending balance $2,427,262.47, total withdrawn $1,427,262.47, never runs out (100+ years). One point less on the withdrawal rate turns a 49-year plan into one that never runs out at all — the balance grows faster than the withdrawals for the whole century.
Withdrawal rate 5%: first-year $50,000.00 ($4,166.67/mo), ending balance $216,443.34, total withdrawn $2,378,770.79, runs out in year 32. One point more, and the 30-year plan only just survives — the balance is nearly gone at year 30 and the money runs out two years later.
Return 4%: first-year $40,000.00 ($3,333.33/mo), RUNS OUT in year 30 (shortfall $21,142.65), total withdrawn $1,881,873.98 — the 30-year plan fails in its last year. Two points less return is enough to break the plan: the balance cannot keep up with withdrawals that grow by 3.00% a year while it only grows by 4.00%.
Return 8%: first-year $40,000.00 ($3,333.33/mo), ending balance $3,954,341.35, total withdrawn $1,903,016.63, never runs out (100+ years). Two points more return nearly triples the ending balance — and the total withdrawn is unchanged, because the withdrawals do not depend on the return at all.
Inflation 0%: first-year $40,000.00 ($3,333.33/mo), ending balance $2,581,163.72, total withdrawn $1,200,000.00, never runs out (100+ years). With no inflation the withdrawal stays flat at $40,000.00 a year, so the balance grows for the whole century.
Inflation 5%: first-year $40,000.00 ($3,333.33/mo), ending balance $57,295.98, total withdrawn $2,657,553.90, runs out in year 31. Two points more inflation nearly wipes out the ending balance — the year-30 withdrawal is $164,645.42, and the money runs out the year after the plan ends.
Years 20: ending balance $1,339,103.16, total withdrawn $1,074,814.98, runs out in year 49. A shorter plan ends with a slightly bigger balance — the balance is still growing at year 20 — and the depletion year is unchanged, because the plan length does not change the yearly steps.
Years 40: ending balance $920,811.08, total withdrawn $3,016,050.39, runs out in year 49. A longer plan withdraws more in total and ends with less left, but the money still lasts to year 49.
Withdrawal rate for the money to run out exactly at year 30: 5.20% — the exact rate is 5.1958%. At 5.20% the ending balance is -$4,638.58 (runs out in year 30); at 5.19% it is $6,415.52 (lasts the 30-year plan; it runs out in year 31 over the 100-year horizon). The star is a PERCENT.
Balance for a $60,000 first-year withdrawal to last 30 years: $1,154,778.03 — the exact balance is $1154778.0268. At $1,154,778.03 the ending balance is $0.02; $1 less, $1,154,777.03, it is -$5.72; one cent less, $1,154,778.02, it is -$0.04 — one cent less does NOT round to the same figure, because each cent of balance is worth about 5.74 cents after 30 years of growth (leverage x5.74). The star is the smallest cent with an ending balance of $0.00 or more. The star is DOLLARS.
Return for a 5% withdrawal rate to last 30 years: 5.70% — the exact return is 5.6983%. At 5.70% the ending balance is $1,131.01; at 5.69% it is -$5,635.83. The star is a PERCENT.
Inflation rate at which the money runs out exactly at year 30: 5.08% — the exact rate is 5.0762%. At 5.08% the ending balance is -$2,867.00 (runs out in year 30); at 5.07% it is $4,699.12 (lasts). The star is a PERCENT.
First year the withdrawal passes $50,000: year 9 ($50,670.80); year 8 is $49,194.95. The star is a YEAR.
Balance for a fixed $40,000 a year to last 40 years: $910,476.73 — the exact balance is $910476.7326. At $910,476.73 the ending balance is -$0.03 — slightly negative, stated honestly: the star is the rounded exact, not the smallest cent that lasts. $1 less, $910,475.73, it is -$10.31; one cent less, $910,476.72, it is -$0.13 — one cent less does NOT round to the same figure, because each cent of balance is worth about 10.29 cents after 40 years of growth (leverage x10.29). The star is DOLLARS.
Withdrawals are taken at the end of each year, after that year’s growth; each year’s withdrawal grows by the inflation rate; the return is one flat rate for the whole plan, so the model does not cover a bad year early on or a market crash; taxes are NOT included; fees are NOT included; the model assumes you stay invested the whole time and never add to the balance; and the depletion check runs to 100 years, so a plan that lasts past its own horizon still reports the year the money would run out. At the edges the model stays honest: with a withdrawal rate of 0%, First-year $0.00 ($0.00/mo), year-30 withdrawal $0.00, ending balance $5,743,491.17, total withdrawn $0.00, never runs out (100+ years) — no withdrawals at all, so the balance just grows; that is the model at its boundary, not an error. With a return of 0% and inflation of 0%, First-year $40,000.00 ($3,333.33/mo), year-30 withdrawal $40,000.00, RUNS OUT in year 26 (shortfall $40,000.00), total withdrawn $1,000,000.00, no money left after year 26 — a flat $40,000.00 a year against a balance that never grows lasts exactly 25 full years, and the whole year-26 withdrawal is missing. With a balance of $0, First-year $0.00 ($0.00/mo), year-30 withdrawal $0.00, ending balance $0.00, total withdrawn $0.00, never runs out (100+ years) — there is no money and no withdrawals, so the model does not call it “runs out in year 1”. With 1 year in retirement, First-year $40,000.00 ($3,333.33/mo), year-1 withdrawal $40,000.00, ending balance $1,020,000.00, total withdrawn $40,000.00, runs out in year 49 (shortfall $117,542.10) — one year of growth, one withdrawal. With a return of 10%, First-year $40,000.00 ($3,333.33/mo), year-30 withdrawal $94,262.62, ending balance $8,865,322.38, total withdrawn $1,903,016.63, never runs out (100+ years). With inflation of 6% — the same as the return — First-year $40,000.00 ($3,333.33/mo), year-30 withdrawal $216,735.52, RUNS OUT in year 27 (shortfall $90,987.66), total withdrawn $2,457,242.97, no money left after year 27 — when the withdrawals grow as fast as the balance, the balance cannot keep up. Rounding convention: totals are computed from unrounded values, so rounded parts may differ by a cent from their rounded sum.
| Output | Formula | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| First-year withdrawal | W1 = B × w ÷ 100 | $40,000.00. |
| Monthly income | W1 ÷ 12 | $3,333.33/mo. |
| Year-5 withdrawal | W1 × (1 + i)^4 | $45,020.35. |
| Year-10 withdrawal | W1 × (1 + i)^9 | $52,190.93. |
| Year-20 withdrawal | W1 × (1 + i)^19 | $70,140.24. |
| Year-30 withdrawal | W1 × (1 + i)^29 | $94,262.62. |
| Ending balance | Bt = B(t−1) × (1 + r) − Wt, year by year | $1,321,852.90. |
| Total withdrawn | sum of the withdrawals actually paid | $1,903,016.63. |
| Runs out in year | first year the full withdrawal cannot be paid | year 49. |
| Shortfall that year | Wt − B(t−1) × (1 + r) | $117,542.10. |
| Withdrawal rate for the money to run out exactly at year 30 | exact 5.1958% | 5.20% → 5.20%. |
| Balance for a $60,000 first-year withdrawal to last 30 years | exact $1154778.0268 | $1,154,778.03 → $1,154,778.03. |
| One cent less than the R2 star | $1,154,778.02 | -$0.04. |
| Return for a 5% withdrawal rate to last 30 years | exact 5.6983% | 5.70% → 5.70%. |
| Inflation rate at which the money runs out exactly at year 30 | exact 5.0762% | 5.08% → 5.08%. |
| First year the withdrawal passes $50,000 | discrete scan, years 1–30 | Year 9 → Year 9. |
| Balance for a fixed $40,000 a year to last 40 years | exact $910476.7326 | $910,476.73 → $910,476.73. |
| One cent less than the R6 star | $910,476.72 | -$0.13. |
| Balance $500,000 | same model | First-year $20,000.00 ($1,666.67/mo), year-30 withdrawal $47,131.31, ending balance $660,926.45, total withdrawn $951,508.31, runs out in year 49 (shortfall $58,771.05). |
| Balance $2,000,000 | same model | First-year $80,000.00 ($6,666.67/mo), year-30 withdrawal $188,525.24, ending balance $2,643,705.81, total withdrawn $3,806,033.26, runs out in year 49 (shortfall $235,084.19). |
| Withdrawal rate 3% | same model | First-year $30,000.00 ($2,500.00/mo), year-30 withdrawal $70,696.97, ending balance $2,427,262.47, total withdrawn $1,427,262.47, never runs out (100+ years). |
| Withdrawal rate 5% | same model | First-year $50,000.00 ($4,166.67/mo), year-30 withdrawal $117,828.28, ending balance $216,443.34, total withdrawn $2,378,770.79, runs out in year 32 (shortfall $10,453.20). |
| Return 4% | same model | First-year $40,000.00 ($3,333.33/mo), year-30 withdrawal $94,262.62, RUNS OUT in year 30 (shortfall $21,142.65), total withdrawn $1,881,873.98, no money left after year 30. |
| Return 8% | same model | First-year $40,000.00 ($3,333.33/mo), year-30 withdrawal $94,262.62, ending balance $3,954,341.35, total withdrawn $1,903,016.63, never runs out (100+ years). |
| Inflation 0% | same model | First-year $40,000.00 ($3,333.33/mo), year-30 withdrawal $40,000.00, ending balance $2,581,163.72, total withdrawn $1,200,000.00, never runs out (100+ years). |
| Inflation 5% | same model | First-year $40,000.00 ($3,333.33/mo), year-30 withdrawal $164,645.42, ending balance $57,295.98, total withdrawn $2,657,553.90, runs out in year 31 (shortfall $112,143.95). |
| Years 20 | same model | First-year $40,000.00 ($3,333.33/mo), year-20 withdrawal $70,140.24, ending balance $1,339,103.16, total withdrawn $1,074,814.98, runs out in year 49 (shortfall $117,542.10). |
| Years 40 | same model | First-year $40,000.00 ($3,333.33/mo), year-40 withdrawal $126,681.08, ending balance $920,811.08, total withdrawn $3,016,050.39, runs out in year 49 (shortfall $117,542.10). |
The math is first-principles: year by year, the balance grows by the return and then the year’s withdrawal — grown by inflation — comes out; the first year the full withdrawal cannot be paid is the year the money runs out, and the shortfall that year is stated; every figure is rounded to cents half-up, and the totals are computed from unrounded values, so rounded parts may differ by a cent from their rounded sum. What the model cannot do is predict YOUR retirement: it uses one flat return, so it does not cover a bad year early on, a market crash, or a run of good years; it leaves taxes, fees and account charges out; it does not count Social Security, a pension or part-time work, which all stretch the money further; it assumes you stay invested the whole time and never add to the balance; and it assumes the inflation rate never changes. Use it to judge how long the money lasts under steady assumptions, then stress-test it with a lower return and a higher inflation rate before you trust the answer.
Bright Side Kit. "Retirement Withdrawal Calculator: How Long Will It Last?" https://brightoolbox.com/retirement-withdrawal-calculator/ Accessed October 26, 2026.It lasts 48 full years, running out in year 49. The first-year withdrawal is $40,000.00 ($3,333.33/mo a month), the year-30 withdrawal is $94,262.62, the balance left after 30 years is $1,321,852.90 and the total withdrawn over 30 years is $1,903,016.63. At a 65th-birthday retirement the money would carry you past 110.
5.20%. The exact rate is 5.1958%. At 5.20% the ending balance is -$4,638.58 (runs out in year 30); at 5.19% it is $6,415.52 (lasts the 30-year plan).
$1,154,778.03. The exact balance is $1154778.0268. At $1,154,778.03 the ending balance is $0.02; $1 less, $1,154,777.03, it is -$5.72; one cent less, $1,154,778.02, it is -$0.04 — one cent less does not round to the same figure, because each cent of balance is worth about 5.74 cents after 30 years of growth.
5.70%. The exact return is 5.6983%. At 5.70% the ending balance is $1,131.01; at 5.69% it is -$5,635.83.
The ending balance falls to $57,295.98 and the money runs out in year 31. The year-30 withdrawal is $164,645.42 and the total withdrawn over 30 years is $2,657,553.90. Two points more inflation nearly wipes out the ending balance.
In year 9, at $50,670.80. Year 8 is $49,194.95. The withdrawal grows by 3.00% a year, so it passes $50,000 in the ninth year.
No — taxes are NOT included. Withdrawals from a traditional IRA or 401(k) are taxable income, so the spendable amount is less than the withdrawal shown here. The calculator also leaves fees out and assumes you stay invested the whole time.
The 30-year plan fails in its last year. The money runs out in year 30, short $21,142.65 that year, and the total withdrawn over 30 years is $1,881,873.98. Two points less return is enough to break the plan.