★ COMPARISONS · MUTUAL FUND VS ETF · WHICH KEEPS MORE?
Mutual fund $86,022.50, ETF $100,354.04 — ETF wins by $14,331.54. Put in the starting amount, yearly contribution, gross return and years, plus each fund’s expense ratio and tax drag, and the calculator grows both funds on the same money and shows which one keeps more.
Same money, same gross return, two wrappers: the mutual fund nets 6.85% a year after its 0.75% expense ratio and 0.40% tax drag; the ETF nets 7.92% after its 0.03% expense ratio and 0.05% tax drag. Contributions go in at each year-end.
On the defaults — $10,000.00 to start, $1,200.00/yr a year, a 8.00% gross return over 20.0 years — the mutual fund ends at $86,022.50 and the ETF at $100,354.04, so ETF wins by $14,331.54. The mutual fund nets 6.85% a year (8.00% gross, less a 0.75% expense ratio and 0.40% tax drag); the ETF nets 7.92% (8.00% gross, less a 0.03% expense ratio and 0.05% tax drag). Both funds earn the SAME gross return — the comparison isolates costs, not manager skill. Contributions are made at each year-end, so a contribution made in the final year earns nothing yet. The tax drag is an ASSUMPTION: fund distributions taxed as they are realized — your rate will differ, and in a tax-advantaged account the drag is effectively zero. An expense ratio is the fund’s annual fee, taken as a percentage of what you hold. Past returns do not predict future returns — the gross return here is your assumption, not a forecast. The ETF wins here because its costs are lower at every realistic level — the mutual fund only ties if the ETF’s expense ratio rises to 1.10%.
Setup: $10,000.00 to start, $1,200.00/yr a year at each year-end, 8.00% gross, 20.0 years; mutual fund 0.75% expense and 0.40% drag; ETF 0.03% expense and 0.05% drag.
Line 1 — the net returns. Mutual fund: 8.00% − 0.75% − 0.40% = 6.85%. ETF: 8.00% − 0.03% − 0.05% = 7.92%.
Line 2 — the formula. Future value = P·(1+r)^n + C·((1+r)^n − 1)/r, where r is the net return, n the years, and contributions go in at each year-end.
Line 3 — the mutual fund from the initial investment. The $10,000.00 grows at the mutual fund’s net 6.85% for 20.0 years to $37,626.21.
Line 4 — the mutual fund from contributions. $1,200.00/yr a year at the same net return builds to $48,396.29.
Line 5 — the mutual-fund total. $37,626.21 + $48,396.29 = $86,022.50.
Line 6 — the ETF. The $10,000.00 grows at the ETF’s net 7.92% for 20.0 years to $45,923.90; $1,200.00/yr a year builds to $54,430.15.
Line 7 — the ETF total. $45,923.90 + $54,430.15 is one cent more than the ETF total $100,354.04 — the ETF total is one cent less than the sum of its two rounded parts. Rounding convention: totals are computed from unrounded values, so rounded parts may differ by a cent from their rounded sum.
Line 8 — what you put in. You put in $34,000.00 in total: $10,000.00 to start plus $1,200.00/yr a year for 20.0 years.
Line 9 — the winner. $100,354.04 − $86,022.50 = $14,331.54 — ETF wins by $14,331.54. The default result in full: Mutual fund $86,022.50 ($37,626.21 from the $10,000.00, $48,396.29 from contributions) | ETF $100,354.04 ($45,923.90 from the $10,000.00, $54,430.15 from contributions) | ETF wins by $14,331.54. Rounding convention: totals are computed from unrounded values, so rounded parts may differ by a cent from their rounded sum.
Years 10: mutual fund $35,860.21, ETF $38,747.83, ETF wins by $2,887.62. Ten years is not enough time for the small yearly cost gap to compound into a large one, so the ETF’s lead stays modest.
Years 30: mutual fund $183,324.70, ETF $232,375.30, ETF wins by $49,050.60. Give the cost gap another decade and the lead grows far beyond the default — time is the ETF’s best friend here.
Gross return 6%: mutual fund $64,840.99, ETF $75,355.67, ETF wins by $10,514.68. A lower gross return shrinks both pots, but the cost gap survives — the ETF still wins by a wide margin.
Gross return 10%: mutual fund $114,889.89, ETF $134,411.88, ETF wins by $19,521.98. A higher gross return grows both pots and widens the gap — costs compound just like returns.
MF expense 1.50%: mutual fund $77,302.12, ETF $100,354.04, ETF wins by $23,051.93. A pricier mutual fund hands the ETF its biggest lead on this page.
MF expense 0.25%: mutual fund $92,424.81, ETF $100,354.04, ETF wins by $7,929.24. Even a cheap mutual fund loses — the tax drag keeps the ETF ahead.
ETF expense 0.20%: mutual fund $86,022.50, ETF $97,915.59, ETF wins by $11,893.08. A pricier ETF narrows the gap, but the mutual fund’s combined costs are still higher.
Contribution $0: only the $10,000.00 works — the mutual fund reaches $37,626.21 and the ETF $45,923.90, ETF wins by $8,297.68. The cost gap is there even without a single extra dollar going in.
Contribution $6,000/yr: mutual fund $279,607.66, ETF $318,074.63, ETF wins by $38,466.97. Bigger contributions mean more money exposed to the cost gap every year, so the lead grows with the saving rate.
Initial $50,000: mutual fund $236,527.36, ETF $284,049.63, ETF wins by $47,522.27. A bigger starting pot means the same percentage cost gap is worth far more dollars.
MF tax drag 0%: mutual fund $91,104.40, ETF $100,354.04, ETF wins by $9,249.64. Take the tax drag away entirely and the mutual fund still loses — its expense ratio alone is enough.
ETF expense ratio for an exact tie: 1.10% — the nets must match: 8.00% − 1.10% − 0.05% = 6.85%, the mutual fund’s net. At 1.10%: Mutual fund $86,022.50 ($37,626.21 from the $10,000.00, $48,396.29 from contributions) | ETF $86,022.50 ($37,626.21 from the $10,000.00, $48,396.29 from contributions) | Tie. One step below, Mutual fund $86,022.50 ($37,626.21 from the $10,000.00, $48,396.29 from contributions) | ETF $86,145.75 ($37,696.71 from the $10,000.00, $48,449.05 from contributions) | ETF wins by $123.25 — the ETF wins by $123.25; one step above, Mutual fund $86,022.50 ($37,626.21 from the $10,000.00, $48,396.29 from contributions) | ETF $85,899.44 ($37,555.85 from the $10,000.00, $48,343.60 from contributions) | MF wins by $123.06 — the mutual fund wins by $123.06. The star is a PERCENT.
MF expense ratio for a $5,000 gap: exact 0.0335%; displayed 0.03% → gap $4,951.40. At 0.03%: Mutual fund $95,402.64 ($43,035.16 from the $10,000.00, $52,367.48 from contributions) | ETF $100,354.04 ($45,923.90 from the $10,000.00, $54,430.15 from contributions) | ETF wins by $4,951.40. One step above: Mutual fund $95,265.07 ($42,955.21 from the $10,000.00, $52,309.86 from contributions) | ETF $100,354.04 ($45,923.90 from the $10,000.00, $54,430.15 from contributions) | ETF wins by $5,088.97 — the gap is $5,088.97. This reverse is CONTINUOUS: the gap rises smoothly with the mutual fund’s expense ratio, so there is no smallest step that flips it — the displayed value is simply the rounded answer. The star is a PERCENT.
Years for a $10,000 gap: exact 17.43 years; displayed 17.5 years → gap $10,097.16. At 17.5 years: Mutual fund $70,217.18 ($31,882.64 from the $10,000.00, $38,334.54 from contributions) | ETF $80,314.33 ($37,956.30 from the $10,000.00, $42,358.03 from contributions) | ETF wins by $10,097.16. One step below: Mutual fund $69,637.80 ($31,672.09 from the $10,000.00, $37,965.71 from contributions) | ETF $79,589.46 ($37,668.10 from the $10,000.00, $41,921.36 from contributions) | ETF wins by $9,951.66 — the gap is $9,951.66. The star is YEARS.
Annual contribution for a $20,000 gap: exact $2327.3304/yr; displayed $2,327.33/yr → gap $20,000.00. At $2,327.33/yr: Mutual fund $131,487.99 ($37,626.21 from the $10,000.00, $93,861.78 from contributions) | ETF $151,487.99 ($45,923.90 from the $10,000.00, $105,564.09 from contributions) | ETF wins by $20,000.00. One cent less, $2,327.32: Mutual fund $131,487.59 ($37,626.21 from the $10,000.00, $93,861.38 from contributions) | ETF $151,487.54 ($45,923.90 from the $10,000.00, $105,563.64 from contributions) | ETF wins by $19,999.95 — the gap is $19,999.95. The star is DOLLARS/YEAR.
Gross return for a $10,000 gap: exact 5.6759%; displayed 5.68% → gap $10,006.33. At 5.68%: Mutual fund $62,020.20 ($24,255.99 from the $10,000.00, $37,764.21 from contributions) | ETF $72,026.53 ($29,735.71 from the $10,000.00, $42,290.81 from contributions) | ETF wins by $10,006.33. One step below: Mutual fund $61,934.28 ($24,209.62 from the $10,000.00, $37,724.66 from contributions) | ETF $71,925.13 ($29,679.45 from the $10,000.00, $42,245.68 from contributions) | ETF wins by $9,990.84 — the gap is $9,990.84. The star is a PERCENT.
Initial investment for a $10,000 gap: exact $4779.8189; displayed $4,779.82 → gap $10,000.00. At $4,779.82: Mutual fund $66,380.94 ($17,984.65 from the $4,779.82, $48,396.29 from contributions) | ETF $76,380.94 ($21,950.80 from the $4,779.82, $54,430.15 from contributions) | ETF wins by $10,000.00. One cent less, $4,779.81: Mutual fund $66,380.90 ($17,984.62 from the $4,779.81, $48,396.29 from contributions) | ETF $76,380.90 ($21,950.75 from the $4,779.81, $54,430.15 from contributions) | ETF wins by $9,999.99 — the gap is $9,999.99. The star is DOLLARS.
Both funds earn the same gross return, so the comparison is about the wrapper, not the manager. With no time at all (Mutual fund $10,000.00 ($10,000.00 from the $10,000.00, $0.00 from contributions) | ETF $10,000.00 ($10,000.00 from the $10,000.00, $0.00 from contributions) | Tie) both sides are $10,000.00 — a TIE, because no time has passed for costs to bite. With no growth at all (Mutual fund $29,485.15 ($7,934.75 from the $10,000.00, $21,550.39 from contributions) | ETF $33,659.68 ($9,841.21 from the $10,000.00, $23,818.47 from contributions) | ETF wins by $4,174.54) the mutual fund is $29,485.15 and the ETF $33,659.68 — ETF wins by $4,174.54; fees still eat the mutual fund even with no growth. After one year (Mutual fund $11,885.00 ($10,685.00 from the $10,000.00, $1,200.00 from contributions) | ETF $11,992.00 ($10,792.00 from the $10,000.00, $1,200.00 from contributions) | ETF wins by $107.00) the ETF is already ahead by $107.00. Even a FREE mutual fund loses: with the mutual fund’s fee removed entirely (Mutual fund $95,816.62 ($43,275.83 from the $10,000.00, $52,540.79 from contributions) | ETF $100,354.04 ($45,923.90 from the $10,000.00, $54,430.15 from contributions) | ETF wins by $4,537.42) the mutual fund reaches $95,816.62 against the ETF’s $100,354.04 — the tax drag alone costs $4,537.42. With the mutual fund’s tax drag removed (Mutual fund $91,104.40 ($40,545.81 from the $10,000.00, $50,558.59 from contributions) | ETF $100,354.04 ($45,923.90 from the $10,000.00, $54,430.15 from contributions) | ETF wins by $9,249.64) the ETF still wins by $9,249.64. With no starting money, contributions only (Mutual fund $48,396.29 ($0.00 from the $0.00, $48,396.29 from contributions) | ETF $54,430.15 ($0.00 from the $0.00, $54,430.15 from contributions) | ETF wins by $6,033.86), the ETF wins by $6,033.86. At an ETF expense ratio of 1.10% (Mutual fund $86,022.50 ($37,626.21 from the $10,000.00, $48,396.29 from contributions) | ETF $86,022.50 ($37,626.21 from the $10,000.00, $48,396.29 from contributions) | Tie) the two sides tie exactly, both $86,022.50. And with a much higher mutual fund expense ratio (Mutual fund $72,026.53 ($29,735.71 from the $10,000.00, $42,290.81 from contributions) | ETF $100,354.04 ($45,923.90 from the $10,000.00, $54,430.15 from contributions) | ETF wins by $28,327.52) the ETF wins by $28,327.52. Rounding convention: totals are computed from unrounded values, so rounded parts may differ by a cent from their rounded sum.
| Output | Formula | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Mutual-fund value | FV = P·(1+r)^n + C·((1+r)^n − 1)/r, r = net MF return | $86,022.50. |
| ETF value | FV = P·(1+r)^n + C·((1+r)^n − 1)/r, r = net ETF return | $100,354.04. |
| Mutual fund from the initial investment | P·(1+r)^n | $37,626.21. |
| Mutual fund from contributions | C·((1+r)^n − 1)/r | $48,396.29. |
| ETF from the initial investment | P·(1+r)^n | $45,923.90. |
| ETF from contributions | C·((1+r)^n − 1)/r | $54,430.15. |
| Gap | ETF − MF | $14,331.54. |
| Winner | higher value after costs | ETF. |
| ETF expense ratio for an exact tie | net equality: gross − ETF expense − ETF drag = MF net | 1.10% → 1.10%. |
| MF expense ratio for a $5,000 gap | exact 0.0335% | 0.03% → 0.03%. |
| Years for a $10,000 gap | exact 17.43 years | 17.5 years → 17.5 years. |
| Annual contribution for a $20,000 gap | exact $2327.3304/yr | $2,327.33/yr → $2,327.33/yr. |
| Gross return for a $10,000 gap | exact 5.6759% | 5.68% → 5.68%. |
| Initial investment for a $10,000 gap | exact $4779.8189 | $4,779.82 → $4,779.82. |
| Years 10 | same model | Mutual fund $35,860.21 ($19,397.48 from the $10,000.00, $16,462.73 from contributions) | ETF $38,747.83 ($21,429.86 from the $10,000.00, $17,317.97 from contributions) | ETF wins by $2,887.62. |
| Years 30 | same model | Mutual fund $183,324.70 ($72,985.37 from the $10,000.00, $110,339.33 from contributions) | ETF $232,375.30 ($98,414.28 from the $10,000.00, $133,961.02 from contributions) | ETF wins by $49,050.60. |
| Gross return 6% | same model | Mutual fund $64,840.99 ($25,785.09 from the $10,000.00, $39,055.90 from contributions) | ETF $75,355.67 ($31,590.71 from the $10,000.00, $43,764.96 from contributions) | ETF wins by $10,514.68. |
| Gross return 10% | same model | Mutual fund $114,889.89 ($54,521.61 from the $10,000.00, $60,368.28 from contributions) | ETF $134,411.88 ($66,303.19 from the $10,000.00, $68,108.69 from contributions) | ETF wins by $19,521.98. |
| MF expense 1.50% | same model | Mutual fund $77,302.12 ($32,681.93 from the $10,000.00, $44,620.19 from contributions) | ETF $100,354.04 ($45,923.90 from the $10,000.00, $54,430.15 from contributions) | ETF wins by $23,051.93. |
| MF expense 0.25% | same model | Mutual fund $92,424.81 ($41,308.65 from the $10,000.00, $51,116.16 from contributions) | ETF $100,354.04 ($45,923.90 from the $10,000.00, $54,430.15 from contributions) | ETF wins by $7,929.24. |
| ETF expense 0.20% | same model | Mutual fund $86,022.50 ($37,626.21 from the $10,000.00, $48,396.29 from contributions) | ETF $97,915.59 ($44,498.52 from the $10,000.00, $53,417.06 from contributions) | ETF wins by $11,893.08. |
| Contribution $0 | same model | Mutual fund $37,626.21 ($37,626.21 from the $10,000.00, $0.00 from contributions) | ETF $45,923.90 ($45,923.90 from the $10,000.00, $0.00 from contributions) | ETF wins by $8,297.68. |
| Contribution $6,000/yr | same model | Mutual fund $279,607.66 ($37,626.21 from the $10,000.00, $241,981.44 from contributions) | ETF $318,074.63 ($45,923.90 from the $10,000.00, $272,150.73 from contributions) | ETF wins by $38,466.97. |
| Initial $50,000 | same model | Mutual fund $236,527.36 ($188,131.07 from the $50,000.00, $48,396.29 from contributions) | ETF $284,049.63 ($229,619.48 from the $50,000.00, $54,430.15 from contributions) | ETF wins by $47,522.27. |
| MF tax drag 0% | same model | Mutual fund $91,104.40 ($40,545.81 from the $10,000.00, $50,558.59 from contributions) | ETF $100,354.04 ($45,923.90 from the $10,000.00, $54,430.15 from contributions) | ETF wins by $9,249.64. |
The math is first-principles: net return = gross − expense ratio − tax drag for each fund, and future value = P·(1+r)^n + C·((1+r)^n − 1)/r with contributions at each year-end — every figure is rounded to cents half-up, and totals are computed from unrounded values, so rounded parts may differ by a cent from their rounded sum; the ETF total $100,354.04 is one cent less than the sum of its two rounded parts ($45,923.90 + $54,430.15). What the model cannot do is pick YOUR fund: it does not model manager skill, so a mutual fund that beats the market would win on its own merits; it does not model fund choice, fees changing over time, or taxes on the final sale; and the tax drag is an assumption — your rate will differ, and in a tax-advantaged account it is effectively zero. Use it to compare the cost of the wrapper, then judge the fund itself on its own record.
Bright Side Kit. "Mutual Fund vs ETF: Which Grows Your Money More in 2026?" https://brightoolbox.com/mutual-fund-vs-etf/ Accessed October 26, 2026.Mutual fund $86,022.50, ETF $100,354.04 — ETF wins by $14,331.54. On $10,000.00 to start plus $1,200.00/yr a year at a 8.00% gross return over 20.0 years, the mutual fund grows the $10,000.00 to $37,626.21 and the contributions to $48,396.29; the ETF grows them to $45,923.90 and $54,430.15. You put in $34,000.00 in total.
Lower costs, compounding. Both funds earn the same 8.00% gross return, but the mutual fund nets 6.85% a year after its 0.75% expense ratio and 0.40% tax drag, while the ETF nets 7.92% after 0.03% and 0.05%. That yearly gap compounds over 20.0 years into $14,331.54.
1.10%. The nets must match: 8.00% − 1.10% − 0.05% = 6.85%, the mutual fund’s net. At 1.10%, Mutual fund $86,022.50 ($37,626.21 from the $10,000.00, $48,396.29 from contributions) | ETF $86,022.50 ($37,626.21 from the $10,000.00, $48,396.29 from contributions) | Tie. One step below, the ETF wins by $123.25; one step above, the mutual fund wins by $123.06.
Exact 0.0335%, displayed 0.03%. At 0.03% the gap is $4,951.40; one step above, the gap is $5,088.97. The reverse is CONTINUOUS — the gap rises smoothly with the expense ratio.
Exact 17.43 years, displayed 17.5 years. At 17.5 years the gap is $10,097.16; one step below, it is $9,951.66.
The ETF still wins, by $8,297.68. With only the $10,000.00 working, the mutual fund reaches $37,626.21 and the ETF $45,923.90 — ETF wins by $8,297.68.
No — the ETF still wins by $4,537.42. With the mutual fund’s expense ratio at zero (Mutual fund $95,816.62 ($43,275.83 from the $10,000.00, $52,540.79 from contributions) | ETF $100,354.04 ($45,923.90 from the $10,000.00, $54,430.15 from contributions) | ETF wins by $4,537.42), the tax drag alone costs $4,537.42. Even with the tax drag removed too (Mutual fund $91,104.40 ($40,545.81 from the $10,000.00, $50,558.59 from contributions) | ETF $100,354.04 ($45,923.90 from the $10,000.00, $54,430.15 from contributions) | ETF wins by $9,249.64), the ETF wins by $9,249.64 — the expense ratio alone is enough.
It is an assumption, not a tax bill. The model subtracts 0.40% a year from the mutual fund’s return and 0.05% from the ETF’s, standing in for taxes on fund distributions as they are realized. Your rate will differ, and in a tax-advantaged account the drag is effectively zero — but even with the mutual fund’s drag removed (Mutual fund $91,104.40 ($40,545.81 from the $10,000.00, $50,558.59 from contributions) | ETF $100,354.04 ($45,923.90 from the $10,000.00, $54,430.15 from contributions) | ETF wins by $9,249.64), the ETF still wins by $9,249.64.