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Heat pump vs gas furnace true cost
Net installed cost plus 15 years of energy, with your COP, AFUE, utility prices, and federal credit. The verdict names the cheaper side and the break-even year where the answer flips.
COMPARISON · MONEY · HOME ENERGY
Heat Pump vs Gas Furnace
A $13,500 heat pump (COP 3.2, $2,000 federal credit) versus a $7,000 gas furnace (90% AFUE), heating 60 MMBtu a year at 14¢ electricity and $1.90 a therm. Over 15 years the heat pump costs $23,039.67 and the furnace $26,000.00 — the heat pump wins by $2,960.33, breaking even in year 10. But at 28¢ electricity the furnace wins by $8,579.34 with no break-even at all. Enter your own quotes, COP, gas price, and credit below.
The 60-second rule
Total cost = net installed cost + (years × annual energy cost). Heat pump energy = (MMBtu × 293.071 ÷ COP) × electricity price. Gas energy = (MMBtu × 10 ÷ AFUE) × gas price. At the defaults: 60 MMBtu is 17,584.26 kWh of heat, so the heat pump burns 5,495.08 kWh × 14¢ = $769.31 a year, and the furnace burns 666.67 therms × $1.90 = $1,266.67 a year. The heat pump saves $497.36 a year on energy, which pays back its $4,500 net-install premium ($13,500 − $2,000 credit vs $7,000) in year 10.
The worked example, line by line
Setup: $13,500 heat pump (COP 3.2, $2,000 federal credit) vs $7,000 gas furnace (90% AFUE); 60 MMBtu a year; 14¢ electricity; $1.90 a therm; 15 years.
The heat demand. 60 MMBtu × 293.071 = 17,584.26 kWh of heat the house needs each year. Everything flows from this number.
The heat pump side. 17,584.26 ÷ 3.2 = 5,495.08 kWh of electricity × $0.14 = $769.31 a year. Net installed: $13,500 − $2,000 = $11,500. Fifteen years: $11,500 + 15 × $769.31 = $23,039.67.
The furnace side. 60 × 10 ÷ 0.9 = 666.67 therms of gas × $1.90 = $1,266.67 a year. Fifteen years: $7,000 + 15 × $1,266.67 = $26,000.00.
The verdict: $26,000.00 − $23,039.67 = $2,960.33 — the heat pump wins. At year 9 the furnace is still $23.79 ahead ($18,400.00 vs $18,423.79); at year 10 the heat pump pulls ahead for good ($19,193.10 vs $19,666.67).
Branch — expensive electricity at 28¢/kWh: heat pump energy doubles to $1,538.62 a year; its 15-year total becomes $34,579.34 against the furnace’s unchanged $26,000.00. The furnace wins by $8,579.34 — and because the heat pump now costs more every year, it never breaks even. Cheap electricity is the whole game.
Branch — no federal credit: net install rises to $13,500; the 15-year total becomes $25,039.67 — still a $960.33 heat-pump win, but break-even slips from year 10 to year 14. At year 13 the furnace is still $32.36 ahead, so the credit is doing real work.
Branch — mild climate at 25 MMBtu: heat pump energy falls to $320.55 a year, gas to $527.78 a year. Totals: $16,308.20 vs $14,916.67 — the furnace wins by $1,391.53, no break-even in 15 years. With little heat to deliver, the $4,500 install premium never gets repaid.
Branch — cold climate at 90 MMBtu: heat pump energy is $1,153.97 a year, gas $1,900.00 a year. Totals: $28,809.51 vs $35,500.00 — the heat pump wins by $6,690.49, breaking even in year 7. The more heat you buy, the faster efficiency pays.
Output · formula · meaning
| Output | Formula | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Heat pump annual energy | (MMBtu × 293.071 ÷ COP) × electricity price | $769.31 a year at the defaults — how much electricity the heat pump actually buys. |
| Gas annual energy | (MMBtu × 10 ÷ AFUE) × gas price | $1,266.67 a year at the defaults — the therms the furnace needs, priced. |
| Heat pump 15-yr total | (installed cost − credit) + 15 × annual energy | $23,039.67 at the defaults — net install plus a decade and a half of power. |
| Gas furnace 15-yr total | installed cost + 15 × annual energy | $26,000.00 at the defaults — the cheaper box, the pricier fuel. |
| Verdict & break-even year | the cheaper side, by the dollar gap; first year the heat pump cumulative total dips below the furnace’s | Heat pump by $2,960.33; break-even year 10 at the defaults — the number to shop on. |
Who uses this
- The homeowner replacing a dead furnace: comparing a $7,000 like-for-like furnace quote against a $13,500 heat pump quote — sees the $2,960.33 heat-pump win and the year-10 break-even before signing.
- The buyer in a high-rate utility territory: enters 28¢ electricity and watches the verdict flip to a $8,579.34 furnace win — learns their rate is the deciding variable, not the equipment.
- The new-build planner: models the 90-MMBtu cold-climate case and finds a $6,690.49 heat-pump win with break-even in year 7 — designs around the heat pump from day one.
- The budget buyer checking the credit math: zeroes the $2,000 credit and sees break-even slip from year 10 to year 14 — decides whether the credit paperwork is worth $2,000 of payback acceleration.
Accuracy & limitations
This model prices installed cost plus energy only — it does not model maintenance (filters, refrigerant checks, igniters), equipment life differences, or energy-price inflation, all of which can move the totals by hundreds of dollars. COP is not one number: a unit rated 3.2 at 47°F may run near 2.0 in deep cold, so cold-climate shoppers should use a seasonal or cold-climate COP from the manufacturer’s data — the defaults assume 3.2 holds. MMBtu is a modeled input: if you know your actual therms or kWh history, convert from that instead of guessing; a bad demand guess moves both sides’ annual costs. The $2,000 federal credit is the modeled amount at the defaults — eligibility, caps, and phase-outs change with tax law, so confirm what you personally qualify for and set it to 0 if you don’t. What this skips: cooling value (heat pumps also air-condition, worth real money), comfort differences, ductwork costs, and electrical-panel upgrades.
Cite this calculatorBright Side Kit. “Heat Pump vs Gas Furnace.” brightoolbox.com, 2026.
Bright Side Kit. "Heat Pump vs Gas Furnace." https://brightoolbox.com/heat-pump-vs-gas-furnace/ Accessed October 23, 2026.Frequently asked questions
Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace over 15 years?
At the defaults, yes: $23,039.67 vs $26,000.00 — the heat pump wins by $2,960.33 and breaks even in year 10. But at 28¢ electricity the furnace wins by $8,579.34 with no break-even. Your utility rate decides.
At what electricity price does a gas furnace win?
Somewhere between the defaults: at 14¢ the heat pump wins by $2,960.33; at 28¢ the furnace wins by $8,579.34 and the heat pump never breaks even. Enter your actual rate — it is the single most sensitive input.
What is COP, and what value should I use?
COP (coefficient of performance) is heat delivered per unit of electricity consumed — 3.2 means 3.2 kWh of heat per kWh of power. A gas furnace’s equivalent is its AFUE (max ~98%). Use the manufacturer’s cold-climate or seasonal COP for your region, not the mild-weather rating.
How does the $2,000 federal credit change the math?
It buys the heat pump about four years: with the credit, break-even lands in year 10; at $0 it slips to year 14 and the win shrinks to $960.33. Set it to 0 if you don’t qualify — eligibility and caps change with tax law.
Do heat pumps work in cold climates?
The 90-MMBtu cold-climate branch says yes, emphatically: a $6,690.49 heat-pump win with break-even in year 7, assuming a true cold-climate COP of 3.2. Where heat pumps genuinely struggle is far-below-zero weather on a unit sized for a mild rating — check the cold-climate COP, not the brochure number.
What does 60 MMBtu of heating demand mean?
It is 17,584.26 kWh of heat a year — a moderate US home. It equals 666.67 therms through a 90% furnace, or 5,495.08 kWh of electricity through a 3.2-COP heat pump. If you have utility history, convert your real usage instead of guessing.
What costs does this calculator leave out?
Maintenance, equipment-life differences, energy-price inflation, cooling value (heat pumps air-condition too), ductwork, and possible panel upgrades. The totals are installed cost plus energy — accurate for the core trade-off, not the whole ownership picture.